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red states and blue States: political polarization in the United States

The popular vote does not say who will win

This may appear surprising, but compared to their French counterparts, U.S. media publish quite a few polls on voting intentions for the presidency (those who are addicted to polls may still find their happiness in the press, example here on the website of the New York Times ). The reason t ient probably the American electoral system. A national survey has an interest relating to anticipate the outcome of the presidential election. U.S. President is in fact not directly elected by American citizens, but by a panel of 538 "electors." These designated in each State according to the principle of winner-take-all (the leading candidate roundup all the electoral votes). Thus, it may river ar a candidate with a majority of votes nationwide (what Americans call "popular vote") will not be elected because he did not majority of "electors." This happened four times so far in 1824, 1876, 1888 and especially 2000 (where Bush won with five votes ahead in electoral votes while Gore had obtained more than 500 000 votes than him in "Popular vote").

Map New York Times, 2008

A battleground shrinks
The U.S. electoral system also explains the campaign strategies being adopted by candidates . They obviously have an interest in concentrating their efforts on states that can win the most electoral votes. In theory it is possible to be elected President of the United States by having the majority that e in eleven states designating more voters: California (55), Texas (34), New York (31), Florida (27), Illinois (21), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Georgia (15), New Jersey (15 ), North Carolina (15), which allows for 271 electoral votes needed on the 269.
In addition, candidates tend to neglect States who have a long tradition of voting for their camp (California, State of New York and the Northeast States for Democrats) (Texas and the Southern states and Midwest for the Republicans). They focus their campaign activities on the states whose vote is uncertain. In 2004 they spent together 54% of their investment in television advertising and 45% of their trips to three states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) which only represent 14% of the total population (Source: Who Pick the President? A postponement by FairVote - The Center for Voting and Democracy's ). Since the mid-1990s, the number of states considered as uncertain and where s e conducted accordingly most of the campaign (so-called battleground , toss up or Swing States ) decreased and has grown from a dozen to twenty (Source: Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S. Elections, 4th edition ). Map showing states where advertising spending has been most intense during the 2004 campaign. Source: FairVote.

polarization between red states and blue states: a myth?
It seems that over the past two decades, the United States are more polarized with one side heavily Democratic states (Blue States) and another side of the heavily Republican states (Red States) . This geographical divide (between regions Democrats industrial and rural Republican) would reflect the social, religious or racial populations concerned. This polarization may appear surprising since many studies have shown that American voters tend to become more moderate and less attached to the Republican and Democratic parties. In Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America (New York: Pearson Longman, 2005), Morris Fiorina moreover questioned the idea of growing polarization. I can not detail all of his analysis here, but essentially Fiorina said that in terms of values and political attitudes (but not religious) Americans are less divided than is said and partisan divisions that truly are seen among the political elites and citizens involved. If one has the impression of a bias, it would be mostly an effect of the electoral boundaries (gerrymandering the ) which artificially increases the separation between Democratic and Republican constituencies. Incidentally, the myth of polarization have been supported by the media in that it simplifies and dramatizes the coverage of politics, presented as a confrontation between the two major parties.
Fiorina's book has sparked heated debate and numerous studies on the same theme. As often happens in political science research, some surveys have resulted in substantially different conclusions and affirmed the contrary the trend of increasing political polarization of the U.S. (in terms of geographical, social and even religious). For a good point about the issue, one may consult the special issue of The Forum, A Journal of Applied Research in Contemporary Politics , Vol. 3, Issue 2 (July 2005), whose summary is available HERE . (See especially the article by Alan Abramowitz and Kyle Saunders, one of the best in my eyes).

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The Democratic convention in Denver: a beautiful show

Some notes and reflections on the Democratic Convention held in Denver of 25 to 28 August 2008 to endorse the candidacy of Barack Obama.

A well-orchestrated show . for Republicans since 1972 (and 1980 for Democrats), the proceedings of conventions is planned minute by minute. All details are carefully paid in advance (for example, the color of tailor worn by Hillary Clinton during her speech was chosen by the production team after audiovisual trials of light). The key moments of the convention are almost written like a screenplay. The extraordinary flurry of signs which have engaged the delegates in a speech by Joe Biden, candidate for the vice presidency, illustrates this orchestration. If Biden comes on stage, delegates waved signs bearing his name red. When Joe Biden launches into a repetitive attack on "McCain that's no change, that's more of the Same", the delegates waving of new signs stating "McCain The Same." Biden then proceeded to another part of his speech on "Obama, that's the Change We Need". In the room, showing new signs appear that slogan. And when Biden finished his delivery, is a fourth series of signs that appear with the names Obama and Biden.

The roll call: the contest of Eurovision in the U.S.. The roll call is the time the agreement during which the delegations of each state indicates how they split their votes between the candidates for appointment. Each state is called alphabetically. This is an opportunity for the leaders of delegations (often leaders: senators, governors, etc..) Enjoy a moment of publicity and to before, sometimes emphatically, sometimes with humor and even two, a characteristic of their state: its role in the history of the United States, famous people who were born there, its location (Maine and has boasted of being the first state to see the sun each morning ) or its tourism resources, even the quality of its baseball team or basketball. The votes are then announced and accepted by the mistress of ceremonies to be added, which is reminiscent of the famous scoring of the Eurovision Song Contest. Obama 10 points, Clinton and 2 points. Alas, this year the roll call did not go to completion, and the heads of delegations States after the letter N have been denied their moment of TV fame, as Hillary Clinton, speaking in the delegation of the State of New York, requested a vote by acclamation Barack Obama.

The business of politics . It is estimated that a convention costs between 60 and 100 million euros (but, apparently, would yield as much as miscellaneous income to the city that hosts it). To fund the conventions, many companies donate in cash or services (Qwest has offered $ 6 million to the Democratic party). In return, they receive indirect advertising (through television coverage of the convention) and VIP access for their guests. These donations mostly give them the right to host receptions and dinners which provide opportunities of contact with elected Democrats at all levels and from all over the United States. About 400 receptions and parties were held in four days. All this is somewhat similar to the Cannes festival: the action is not necessarily in the room, but in major hotels and banquet halls where businessmen conversing with those who make the laws or regulate their activities. In a recent report, Public Citizen expressed concern about the drift by recalling that the congressional ethics rules prohibit elected in principle to respond to invitations from interest groups. Public Citizen also notes that the major conventions are finally absent voters (although some of them came, as usual, protest outside the convention hall - that looked elsewhere for a small fortress as security checks were numerous and close together).

Dad, Mom, I love you! they are lucky the Democrats: they all have parents, spouses and children who love and extraordinary they cherish. They keep us repeat it in their speeches and pictures of their families together and happy constantly punctuate the Convention. Moreover, all family members who can are there on the stage or in la salle, et apparaissent au moment opportun sur les écrans, la larme à l’œil. Voici comment, le premier jour, Michelle Barak a commencé son intervention en ouverture de la convention : “ As you might imagine, for Barack, running for president is nothing compared to that first game of basketball with my brother, Craig. I can’t tell you how much it means to have Craig and my mom here tonight. Like Craig, I can feel my dad looking down on us, just as I’ve felt his presence in every grace-filled moment of my life ”. Le lendemain, Hillary Clinton, introduite par sa fille, semble plus réservée (et more political). Here are his first words: "I Am Honored To Be Here Tonight. A Proud mother. A Proud Democrat. A Proud American. And a Proud supporter of Barack Obama . (Lack the "A Proud wife" Hillary, or her unconscious, she still wants her ex-president husband?). Day 3: Joe Linden, introduced him by his son Beau (who has not hesitated to do in pathos in telling us the car accident, whose family has been victim) attacked hard: " Beautiful, I love you. I Am So Proud of You. Proud Of The sound you are. Proud of the Father You've Become. And I'm So Proud of my son Hunter, my daughter Ashley, and my wife Jill, the only one who leaves me breathless and speechless at the same time ”. Et ça continue une minute plus tard. « I wish that my dad was here tonight, but I am so grateful that my mom, Catherine Eugenia Finnegan Biden, is here. You know, she taught her children—all the children who flocked to our house—that you are defined by your sense of honor, and you are redeemed by your loyalty. She believes bravery lives in every heart and her expectation is that it will be summoned ”.

The media are watching . Lors de la convention démocrate de 1968, les manifestants criaient aux Delegates' The Whole World is watching you. " This slogan has become reality and the American conventions are subject to extraordinary media coverage: about 15,000 journalists are here, representing 130 countries. to the United States itself, the television coverage is intense and surprising for a European since the major networks broadcast live (and in prime time) the highlights of the convention, while the news channel continues multiply the plates together hierarchs Democrats and political analysts for comments hot. For all these people on hand, CNN has even invested in a restaurant that has been completely refurbished to become the CNN Grill (with a new menu and beer special). But the media are a megaphone. Parked in areas restricted or, like tonight for the intervention of Obama, small tents, they are required to retransmit the images produced by the Democratic organization. This allows it to compose his own visual narrative of the Convention where the most striking are the constant cutaways and scholars (of Michelle Obama on Hillary or Bill Clinton or delegates that provide a mosaic of colors of skin, gender and ages) to communicate a message and subtly emotional consensual: that a Democratic party united and harmonious way to victory.

Photo: Michelle Obama (Washington Post). One can guess (next to Michelle's hand) the teleprompter translucent that speakers use to read their speeches without looking.

I love politics: One of the best blogs on the French election 2008 U.S.

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Meteors

month of August is the month of shooting stars.

To cogitate a little while contemplating the Milky Way lying on the grass, still warm from the heat of the day, a quick question (onto-) logical

If we posit that The universe is infinite, can we say there is a chance exists somewhere in the universe a life form similar to any of those found on earth?

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The law sets


After the occurrence of an accident or a dramatic event, the media may notice that other accidents or similar events occur within days or weeks. They then suggest a law of series, as if suddenly the misfortune happened cluster. It seems that a force will make fatal crash more than normal commercial aircraft (August 2005), suddenly shoot dogs attacking children fatally (June 2006), causing an outbreak of violent confrontations between teachers and their students (Fall 2007), or lead parents to forget their baby in their car (July 2008).
But what we believe to be a series is due to the way we see evil reality and the result of various errors of perception, or cognitive biases in language scholar. Here are four of the most common.

1) The priming effect.
When an event occurs very dramatic and creates a certain emotion, our attention to this type of event is momentarily sharpened. This bias affects us all, but it particularly affects journalists in their news selection. Thus, the national media in general little to forty crossing accidents that occur each year. But if one of them is highly publicized (because of its circumstances, the number of victims, or even because the news was hollow at the time), the media will pay more attention to news reporting other accidents of this type, then that these mails have been thrown in the trash normally.
(Incidentally, the media likes more the idea of a law of series that allows them to transform an event into a social problem).

2) Confirmation bias (very near the previous biases and the increases).
To test the validity of our knowledge, beliefs or ideas, we generally tend to find items that confirm, rather than elements that do not. If, for example, we are convinced that there is global warming, we will likely be both more noticeable and better retain the signs which confirm this phenomenon, and neglecting many other signs that it is relativized.

3) Failure to properly evaluate the statistics.
We often struggle to correctly interpret probabilities in particular because forget about the size of the reference population. Even if an event has an extremely low probability of occurrence, it is likely to occur if we compare it to a large population. For example, playing toss, the probability of cell ten times in a row is 0.0009765625 (1 / 2 to the power 10), roughly a thousand. But if millions of people play simultaneously to toss, stack the series ten times over will happen dozens of times.

4) Waiting excessive spreading.
We tend to think that random events must be distributed to stagger and almost equidistant in time. By definition, luck is not subject to any rules. For example, if we make numerous random draws of twelve dates in a year, it often happens that several of these dates are separated by only a few days. (On 100 000 prints, the average gap between two dates will be minimum of 2.65 days, while many of us intuitively think it would be close to 25-30 days).
However, at certain times of the year, there is much greater frequency of events in an particular type ... because these events are related to the characteristics of a period (the weather or the heat in the case of forgotten babies in cars, so the increase in air traffic during the holidays in case of crashes of aircraft charter etc.).

To go further:
Gérald Bronner Coincidences. Our representations of chance . Paris: Vuibert, 2007.
(Gérald Bronner, senior lecturer in sociology at Paris IV, has been working for many years to decipher the logic of our beliefs).
Jean-Paul Delahaye, The unexpected mathematics. Paris: Belin, 2006 (which has produced figures on the expectation of excessive spreading).

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Heading Grain of salt


grain of salt is the title of a new topic you will find from time to time on this blog.

The title is not very original, and the term sometimes has a pejorative connotation. As recalled by the excellent blog Linguapop to those who want to put their grain of salt, one is often tempted to say: Take care of your onions.

For me, it will take the expression literally. As we add a little salt in a dish to exalt the taste, try to combine parsimony and added flavor and make the most of sense in a minimum of words.