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Meanwhile the great debate

The great debate between the two towers at the French presidential elections is a political object rare since fifty years of Fifth Republic, we only had four debates of this type (1974, 1981, 1988 and 1995).
As we recall, there was no debate in 2002, Jacques Chirac refused to debate with Jean-Marie Le Pen, because "the face of intolerance and hatred, there is no deal possible, no debate possible "(1).


France, a precursor major presidential debates
Our country was in 1974, one of the first countries to broadcast a televised debate between presidential candidates. Contrary to what one might expect, the United States has not been much further ahead in this area. Certainly, in 1960, a first series of televised debates between the Democratic and Republican candidates for the presidency, John Kennedy and Richard Nixon, took place in 1960. But the practice was then discontinued (2) and did not resume until 1976, not without difficulties. In Europe, major televised debates between leaders political coalitions are not systematic (it is true that elections are in the presence of first parties and not individuals as in the French presidential election). Only during the 2005 election was held a televised debate for the first time in Germany between the candidates in the Chancery. And in Britain, this practice has not yet become the norm although it is regularly required.

These debates are very popular with voters and collect huge audiences (23 million to broadcast the debate of 1974 it is true on three channels, almost 17 million for the last debate in 1995). They give rise to exchanges of high intensity and also the famous little phrases that will be remembered long after the election.

In 1974, we remember and Valery Giscard d'Estaing had touched a low of François Mitterrand, calling him "a man of the past." Obviously, the formula had been carefully prepared for VGE constantly hammered this theme repeatedly accusing his opponent to refer to France before and afraid to project into the future with new ideas.

was less noted, however, another point of debate (29th minute) when FM VGE addressed by talking of Clermont-Ferrand, "a city that knows you and knows me well." But why mention Clermont-Ferrand? Jean-François Balmer, who at this time "replays" with Jacques Weber debates of 1974 and 1981 at the Theatre de la Madeleine , recently gave me the key to this little conundrum is the home town of Anne Pingeot. And one can imagine, from CCV, the allusion was not accidental but intended to destabilize FM (3), or at least make him understand that he was aware of his emotional life.

The rules of debate
Any discussion must follow rules that define its course (what is generally called the debate format). This concern:

- the overall length of the debate and its various components;
- the roles of various participants and how their interventions;
- the layout of the place of debate;
- and, if television broadcasting, terms of framing. In France, plans to cut (Frame a candidate while the other talks) have been far systematically denied during the second round of debates.

In a political debate, we can distinguish:
- debaters itself (politicians, candidates),
- the questioners (journalists, and sometimes public)
- the host attached to respect the rules and especially those relating to time.

In general, we consider that each of the debaters must have the same time. It's sort of the application of a policy debate of the basic principles of any democracy: equality of citizens. And it is probably for this reason that the debaters are almost religiously committed to this rule, although it is quite clear that the impact we have on the audience of a debate does not only depend on time available (and that intervention may be clear concise and more effective).

The political debate in America: Myth and Reality
When we speak of election debate in France, it often refers to "the American political debate." This was particularly the case in October 2006 during the debate between the candidates canidature PS.

This reference is doubly funny.
Why should we take the American model as an example of good political debate?
No, the United States, a single format for political debate, but rather a multitude of formats (each election giving rise to heated discussions on the correct format), and all are subject to criticism .

Since 1948, three major types of formats were used in primaries or U.S. presidential campaigns (with many variations of each):
- format podium candidates are standing behind a lectern or sitting on chairs. They face the panelists to (reporters) and moderator (facilitator). Depending on the case, candidates respond only to questions of the panelists or may address each other.
- the town meeting format called : the debate in the presence of an audience (which often can ask questions). Candidates are usually standing behind desks and they can be allowed to walk on stage.
- the round-table format: the candidates and the moderator are sitting around a table and speak directly to each other.

Whatever approach is adopted, policy debates are often criticized. Here are some of the problems identified (after Diana B. Carlin and Mitchell S. McKinney, 1994):
- candidates do not have enough time to respond substantively to questions;
- they do not always the same question, which prevents comparisons, or simply do not respond to questions;
- the panelists are too intrusive or, conversely, they do not enough;
- panelists misrepresent the concerns of the population;
- question-answer format is not conducive to genuine debate.

Political debates are they useful? Yes
meet throughout the research on the subject.

- The discussions raise the level of information policies and knowledge of voters.
- They increase interest in election campaigns and political life.
- They allow citizens to compare the candidates, their personalities and their projects, and provide useful elements for their vote.
- They make the policy more alive and more concrete, even dramatic (within the meaning of the word: surprises, surprises and captures the imagination)
- They facilitate the acceptance of election results and, more generally, strengthen the commitment to the principles of democracy.

However, research on policy debates suggest that they have very little impact on voting intentions, but rather tend to reinforce pre-existing provisions of the voters. It has often been noted that people who watched the televised political debates were citizens rather politicized, opinions already well established, while citizens who might be most susceptible to the influence of watching the debates generally very low. _________________

(1) Meeting of Rennes, April 23, 2002.
(2) The past presidents are reluctant to discuss with their opponent and also because of audiovisual regulation on equality between candidates.
(3) Reported also by Ariane Chemin and Géraldine Catalano in their work on Mitterrand a family secret (Stock, 2005)

To see or see again: The second round of debates from 1974 to 1995 on the DVD produced by INA .

NB: This post is a cover of various tickets already posted on this blog.

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Operations estimation and exit polls

April 22, from 20 hours, even as thousands of voters will just put their ballot in the ballot box, mainstream media announce the results of the first round. But how is this possible?

practice, two techniques are used by the media to announce the likely outcome of the election.

operations estimate consist of extrapolating results from the national recounts done in some offices that close at 18h or 19 hours. These offices are selected based on results of previous elections to form a sample of representative offices of the electorate. Then, applying the adjustment models (to account for differences in supply policy with the previous elections), the estimated national results from the first results of these offices. A first estimation takes place at 18:30 (but is not made public to avoid influencing Last voters) and then refined as and when taking into account the additional votes. The first estimate
operation was conducted in 1965 by a team from the AFP, led by political scientist Jean-Luc Parodi, working from the results of a hundred common. She helped to establish as soon as 19 hours h50 General de Gaulle got 42 to 45% of the vote and was therefore tie in the first round (1).
estimation operations generally allow to clearly identify the main trends of the 1st round and give very good results for the 2nd round. But they have two drawbacks. They are very expensive, because they mobilize many people (four to five cents for a presidential election, more so for other elections). They do not provide information on the composition of electorates and the motivations of the vote.

is why the television call, since 1983, a second technique: the exit polls (SSU) . The SSU
are polls on the day of the election with a sample of voters from voting. They are asked to exit their offices on the voting have made and the reasons for their choice.
The main advantage of ESS is to provide data that goes beyond the scores obtained by candidates who can perform an explanation of hot French vote. We can see whether the voters are determined at the last minute or longer before the election, an idea of the direction in which an occupational group or age group voted, or understand how the deferrals are made votes between the two towers. Nevertheless, data from ESS are not very reliable and should be handled with more caution than intention polls to vote. They are based on statements that can not be completely sincere. ESS tend to over-represent voters most politicized and older who respond more readily to requests from investigators and under-represent the people very politicized and having done some studies (2).

________________ (1) But this information was disseminated by the AFP to 9:20 p.m., Chairman of AFP, John Marin (Gaullist history had been one of the voice of Free France broadcast on the BBC) have been extremely cautious before committing.
(2) is certainly can partially correct these biases by various relief methods. But SSU is made extremely quickly, these adjustments are probably even more imperfect they are for traditional political polls.



This post is an excerpt from my book How does one become President (e) of the republic? The strategies of the candidates (Robert Laffont), Chapter 7, where you can find more information on election nights.